From kjalkan "-at-" ncsa.uiuc.edu Tue Jun 21 21:23:20 1994 Received: from newton.ncsa.uiuc.edu for kjalkan ^%at%^ ncsa.uiuc.edu by www.ccl.net (8.6.9/930601.1506) id VAA02026; Tue, 21 Jun 1994 21:08:46 -0400 From: Received: from deutschd.ncsa.uiuc.edu by newton.ncsa.uiuc.edu with SMTP id AA14621 (5.65a/IDA-1.4.2 for chemistry- at -ccl.net); Tue, 21 Jun 94 20:08:44 -0500 Message-Id: <9406220108.AA14621 ":at:" newton.ncsa.uiuc.edu> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Date: Tue, 21 Jun 1994 20:08:28 +0600 To: chemistry "-at-" ccl.net Subject: Young Scientists' Network Digest Cc: kjalkan.,at,.ncsa.uiuc.edu, ysn-adm.,at,.ren.salk.edu Thought that this was important enough to cross post to Chemistry List at OSU. Part of YSN DIGEST of 21 June 1994 A news digest for discussion of issues involving the employment of scientists, especially those just beginning their careers ~~~~~ To send a message to entire distribution: ysn \\at// ren.salk.edu Miscellaneous administration questions: ysn-adm ":at:" ren.salk.edu for information: mail -s "help" ysn-request $#at#$ ren.salk.edu ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ for back issues of YSN: anonymous ftp to snorri.cpac.washington.edu, cd /ysn Hopefully will get through filtering process and inform the Chemistry List of YSN. >To: ysn \\at// ren.salk.edu >Subject: #13 #13 repost of report on immigration >Date: Mon, 20 Jun 94 12:37:33 EDT >From: Bob Zacher > >Dear YSN'ers > >Full Unemployment Policy for American Ph.D Scientists > >By Robert Zacher > > Over the past several years, it has become clear that the >employment market for new American science and engineering >Ph.D's is very bleak [1]. This is often attributed to the downturn in >the economy, the end of the cold war or domestic overproduction of >Ph.D's. In fact, the effect of these factors is insignificant when >compared to the changes brought about by the Immigration Reform >Act of 1990. Before looking at the immigration numbers, we must >first get an idea of the size of the job market. More precisely, the >figure in which we are interested is the number of permanent jobs for >Ph.D. physical scientists and engineers in the US. According to one >study by the Federal Office of Technology Assessment [2(a)], the >aggregate demand for Ph.D's in the scientific and engineering labor >market is around 12,000 per year. It should be noted that this figure >was probably determined around 1988, before the aforementioned >downturn in support for basic research. This figure can also be >obtained through a simple calculation. At the doctoral level, in 1988, >there were 351,000 Ph.D scientists and 68,000 engineers[2(b)] >employed in the U.S. Together these two groups total 419,000. If we >assume that the average Ph.D gets his/her degree at 30 and retires at >65, the average number of years worked is 35. Dividing the number >of Ph.D's by 35 years also yields 12,000 permanent job openings per >year. > As I will now show, the number of permanent immigration visas >granted in 1993 to foreign Ph.D's dwarfs the number of permanent >jobs. From my own observations, the job market for Ph.D's collapsed >around late 1990. This is also the year of the Immigration Reform >Act of 1990 (S. 358) which boosted the annual quota for >employment-based visas from 54,000 to 140,000 visas. One of the >chief reasons for boosting the quota was the belief that the US would >face a shortage of over half a million scientists and engineers by the >year 2000. This belief was based on a severely defective study of US >technical manpower requirements by Peter House of the NSF. The >actual section of immigration legislation which affects Ph.D >employment is known as the "Immigration and Nationality Act >Preference Allocation for Employment Based Immigrants" [4]. The >quota of 140,000 visas is split up into 4 categories. The technical >name for these categories is preferences. The descriptions of the >categories and the quotas are taken from Ref. [4] > The "first preference"(also known as priority 1) has a quota of >40,000 visas per year. This category is subdivided into three groups; >A) Aliens with extraordinary ability in the sciences, arts, education, >business or athletics. >B) Outstanding Professors and researchers. >C) Executives and managers being transferred within a multinational >company. >The wording of the legislation for categories A and B of the first >preference makes it clear that one of the target groups is Ph.D >scientists and researchers. In 1993, the preliminary number of visas >granted for this category was 21,623 visas [3]. Of these, 1,259 were >in category A and 1,676 were in category B. > The "second preference" (priority 2) has a quota of 40,000 visas >per year. This category is composed solely of "Aliens who are >members of the professions holding advanced degrees or aliens of >exceptional ability".(Advanced degree means Ph.D or M.S. -R.Z.)It >continues;"Visas shall be made available...to qualified immigrants >who are members of the professions holding advanced degrees or >their equivalent or who because of their exceptional ability in the >sciences, arts or business, will substantially benefit the national >economy." Another requirement is "and whose services in the >sciences, arts, professions, or business are sought by an employer in >the United States." One of the main groups targeted in this preference >is also Ph.D's in science and engineering. In 1993, the preliminary >number of visas granted for this category was 29,398 [3]. Advanced >degree holders in this preference received 13,801 visas. > The "Third Priority", the final category which concerns us, is listed >as "Skilled workers, professionals and other workers". The quota here >is also 40,000. This priority is further broken down into 3 >subcategories. >i) "Skilled workers...requiring at least 2 years training or experience" >ii) "Professionals-Qualified immigrants who hold baccalaureate >degrees and who are members of the professions". This is another >category in which Ph.D scientists and engineers can immigrate. >Unlike the previous two priorities, this priority is subject to the >requirement of a "labor certification". This means that the immigrant >must have a job promised to him before obtaining a visa. >These first two categories (i and ii) are identified by DOL[5] as >"Schedule A" >iii) Other workers"- unskilled laborers. Identified by DOL as >"Schedule B" Not to exceed 10,000 per year. Thus, 30,000 to >40,000s visa set aside for the Third Priority are for the Schedule A >workers. Ref 5. Schedule A workers are then split into Group I and >Group II [5]. Group I is composed of nurses and physical therapists. >Group II is: > "Aliens (except for aliens in the performing arts) of exceptional >ability in the sciences or arts including college and university >teachers of exceptional ability who have been practicing their science >or art during the year prior to application and who intend to practice >the same science or art in the United States. For purposes of this >group, the term 'science or art' means any field of knowledge and/or >skill with respect to which colleges and universities commonly offer >specialized courses leading to a degree in the knowledge and/or skill. >An alien, however, need not have studied at a college or university in >order to qualify for the Group II occupation"[5]. Presumably, the >definition of 'art' here, i.e. not an artist in the normal sense, is also >applied to the first and second preferences. Although the legislation >states that a Ph.D is not required for admission in this category, I >have met few college or university teachers of exceptional ability >who did not possess one. > In 1993, the preliminary number of visas granted for the Third >Priority was 93,398! "of which 41,873 were used by beneficiaries of >the Chinese Student Protection Act" [3]. This Act was a response to >the riots in Tiananmen Square. In my opinion, it was a fully justified >response for humanitarian reasons. Judging from my experience, all >of the students from China were graduate students in science or >engineering. I think it is reasonable to assume that practically all of >the Chinese students now possess a Ph.D. For Group II, excluding >the Chinese students, 9,560 visas were granted. The visas granted in >the Third Priority, excluding those granted under the Chinese >Students Protection Act, are subject to the requirement of a Labor >Certification'. > The following is a quote from Robert Schaerfl [7], Director of the >U.S. Employment Service, describing the process of labor >certification; > "The Immigration and Nationality Act, and Immigration and >Nationalization Service (INS) regulations require that aliens seeking >to enter the U.S. either permanently or temporarily for the purpose of >employment be excluded from admission unless the Department of >Labor (DOL) certifies to INS, and the Department of State that >qualified U.S. workers are not available, and that the alien's >employment will not adversely affect the wages and working >conditions of U.S. Workers similarly employed. > The process is known as labor certification. In order to obtain the >labor certification, aliens, must have a U.S. employer who is willing >to make an offer of employment an apply for a labor certification on >behalf of the alien, including aliens with advanced degrees, is >required to conduct a good faith test of the labor market for >qualified U.S. workers, and must document all efforts made to recruit >such workers." > Last year, there were 30,067 applications for labor certifications. >Of these, 24,411 were granted. This yields an approval rate of 81% >[6]. Thus, an employer can reasonably expect that an application for >a labor certification will result in an visa. > Many of the visas cited above will not go to individuals in science >or engineering. Unfortunately, no breakdown of the preferences by >occupation are currently available for 1993. However, numbers for >1992 are [Ref 8] and we can use these to estimate the figure for >1993. >Occupation 1'st pref. 2'nd pref. 3'rd pref >Engineers, surveyors 32 7,280 1,590 >and mapping scientists > >Mathematical and com- 29 1,601 607 >puter scientists > >Natural scientists 75 1,339 204 > >This yields a total of 12,757. In addition to these, there were an >additional 9,064 immigrants in these three occupational groups who >immigrated in other categories. However, these represent less of a >problem since presumeably they are not as highly qualified and >therefore may not be competing with Ph.D's for jobs. In 1992, a total >of 51,787[3] immigrants entered with employment-based visas. In >1993, the preliminary number is 161,220[3]. If we subtract the the >41,873 Chinese students, since this was a one time occurrence, we >had 109,433 visas through normal channels. This is over twice the >figure for 1992. Thus, it is probable that in 1993, the normal >employment-based visas granted to advanced degree holders in >science and engineering represent around 200% of our employment >needs. > If we sum the visas granted to Advanced degree holders in 1993 >for Preference 1 (1,259+1,676), Preference 2 (13,801), and >Preference 3 (9,560) yields 26,296. This is around 250% of our >employment requirements. Adding in the 41,873 Chinese students >yields 68,169 visas. I would estimate the error bar on this number to >be around +_15,000. By comparison, domestically, we produce about >14,450 S&E Ph.D.s of American nationality (1988) [2(b)]. > The conclusion of all of this is that last year we imported around >6.5 Ph.D's for every permanent job! One doesn't have to be a rocket >scientist to realize that flooding the market with 6.5 workers for >every job in an already saturated market must "adversely affect the >wages and working conditions of U.S. workers similarly employed". >If we add in the roughly 1.5 U.S. Ph.D recipients per job, it can be >seen that last year, 8 Ph.D's entered the U.S. market for each job. >That is an 88% unemployment rate. The Immigration Reform Act of >1990 is essentially a FULL UNEMPLOYMENT POLICY for >American science and engineering Ph.D's. In fact, the great majority >of imported Ph.D's will also be forced to find a new career. The >requirement of the immigration statutes that the immigrants "intend to >practice the same science or art in the United States" is impossible to >fulfill since we imported many advanced degree holders for each job. >This misguided policy has now been in effect for 3 years. Thus, in >addition to the roughly 80,000 Ph.D's entering the job market this >year, there is also a backlog of "marginalized" Ph.D's not yet >sufficiently frustrated to have given up on the search for a job in >their field. > It is clear that the disastrous employment situation for Ph.D's in >the last few years has virtually nothing to do with the end of the cold >war, the downturn in the economy or reduced support for R&D by >industry. These are a mere drop in the bucket compared to the effect >of the change in the immigration law. Those elder statesmen of >science who worry that we will not have enough qualified scientists >to pass the torch of knowledge to future generations, or the >politicians who worry about not having enough scientific manpower >for our industrial economy, are like someone in the middle of a flood >worrying if there's going to be enough rain. The conclusion of this >report is that the majority of our brightest and hardest working >students, after investing 10 years of post university work as poorly >paid graduate students and then post-docs, will not find work in an >area related to their degree. Many do not find any work at all for an >extended period, since they are "overqualified" for jobs requiring >lower skill levels. In the long run, when it becomes known that a >degree in science or engineering leads not to a career, but to the >unemployment line, U.S citizens will stop studying science or >engineering at the advanced degree level. > > >References > >[1] "Black Hole Opens up in Scientist Job Rolls", Wall Street >Journal, 4/14/93, pg.B-1. For information about physics only, see >"The Physics Job Market: Bleak for Young Physicists", Kate Kirby >and Roman Czujko, Physics Today, Dec 1993, pg. 22. > >[2] U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, "Federally >Funded Research: Decisions for a Decade", OTA-SET-490 >(Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, May 1991), a) p >251, b) p. 209, c) p. 213. > >[3] United States Department of State Bureau of Consular Affairs, >Visa Bulletin, No 29, Vol. VIII > >[4] Immigration and Nationality Act, Section 203(b) > >[5] Code of Federal Regulations, Vol. 20, 1993, Employment and >Training Administration, Labor, Section 656.11. > >[6} Department of Labor, Monthly Immigration Activities Report, >Permanent Applications, Fiscal Year 1993. > >[7] Personal Communication. > >[8] 1992 Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization >Service, US Department of Justice, pg. 67. > > > >======== >Bob Zacher 146 Oakland Ave, Apt. 1 >zacher -A_T- cfa.harvard.edu Arlington, MA 12174 >Phone: 617 495 7042 > >----------------------------- > >End of Digest >************* >End of Digest >************* > >